UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Alianza Lima to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlianza Lima to win ✓66% · @1.57
Double chanceAlianza Lima or draw ✓90% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓17% · fair 5.89
UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima preview and prediction
The match
Alianza Lima travel to Estadio 25 de Noviembre in the Primera División on Sunday 25 October (19:00 WAT) to face UCV Moquegua. UCV Moquegua are 17th with 12 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Alianza Lima sit 6th on 29 points (in the top half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
UCV Moquegua's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat FC Cajamarca 1–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Alianza Lima's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Atletico Grau 3–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Alianza Lima arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished Alianza Lima 2–1 UCV Moquegua.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.6 for UCV Moquegua and 1.8 for Alianza Lima. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: UCV Moquegua 10%, draw 24%, Alianza Lima 66%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alianza Lima to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.57, above our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it. Predicted score: UCV Moquegua 0–1 Alianza Lima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UCV Moquegua10%fair 10.31 · @5.80
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.50
Alianza Lima66%fair 1.51 · @1.57
2.36Expected goals
0.56UCV Moquegua xG
1.80Alianza Lima xG
49%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–215%
1–110%
0–09%
0–39%
1–29%
From our goals model: UCV Moquegua 0.6 – 1.8 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
Our pick is Alianza Lima to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers UCV Moquegua have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alianza Lima 66%.
How many goals will there be in UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is UCV Moquegua 0–1 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 25 de Noviembre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
