Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.29 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.29Odds
1
Value bet: Cusco to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCusco to win ✓62% · @1.95
Double chanceCusco or draw ✓85% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.77
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal preview and prediction
The match
Cusco host Sporting Cristal in the Primera División on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 21:15 (WAT) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Cusco are 10th with 24 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Sporting Cristal sit 3rd on 31 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Cusco's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Sport Huancayo 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Sporting Cristal's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Comerciantes Unidos 4–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 3.3 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sporting Cristal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for Cusco and 1.0 for Sporting Cristal. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Cusco to win at 1.95 – 62% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cusco or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.29, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cusco 2–0 Sporting Cristal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cusco62%fair 1.60 · @1.95
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.30
Sporting Cristal15%fair 6.75 · @3.50
3.09Expected goals
2.12Cusco xG
0.97Sporting Cristal xG
58%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Cusco 2.1 – 1.0 Sporting Cristal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cusco to win✓
62%
1.60
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Cusco or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.29 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Cusco ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cusco / FT Cusco✓
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.77
–
Form
Cusco – last 6
LLWLWW
16 Oct
@ Sport Huancayo
1–2
L
12 Oct
vs Alianza Lima
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ FC Cajamarca
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs FBC Melgar
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs UCV Moquegua
2–0
W
31 Aug
@ Cienciano
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sporting Cristal – last 6
WWWWWW
17 Oct
vs Comerciantes Unidos
4–2
W
1 Oct
vs ADT
5–0
W
27 Sep
@ ADT
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Atletico Grau
3–1
W
13 Sep
@ UCV Moquegua
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
5–0
W
3.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cusco and Sporting Cristal.
What is the prediction for Cusco vs Sporting Cristal?
Our pick is Cusco or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Cusco vs Sporting Cristal?
On our numbers Cusco have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sporting Cristal 15%.
How many goals will there be in Cusco vs Sporting Cristal?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cusco vs Sporting Cristal?
Our predicted score is Cusco 2–0 Sporting Cristal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Cusco vs Sporting Cristal?
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
