Value bet: Alianza Lima to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCusco to win ✗43% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.59
Cusco vs Alianza Lima preview and prediction
The match
Alianza Lima travel to Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in the Primera División on Monday 12 October (00:30 WAT) to face Cusco. Cusco are 10th with 24 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Alianza Lima sit 6th on 29 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Cusco's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat FC Cajamarca 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Alianza Lima's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Palestino 1–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Cusco arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 19 April 2026, finished Alianza Lima 8–0 Cusco.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Cusco and 1.2 for Alianza Lima. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cusco 43%, draw 23%, Alianza Lima 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Alianza Lima to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Cusco 1–1 Alianza Lima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cusco43%fair 2.34 · @2.25
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.00
Alianza Lima34%fair 2.96 · @3.20
2.59Expected goals
1.39Cusco xG
1.20Alianza Lima xG
51%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Cusco 1.4 – 1.2 Alianza Lima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Cusco vs Alianza Lima?
On our numbers Cusco have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alianza Lima 34%.
How many goals will there be in Cusco vs Alianza Lima?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cusco vs Alianza Lima?
Our predicted score is Cusco 1–1 Alianza Lima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Cusco vs Alianza Lima?
Cusco vs Alianza Lima (Primera División) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
