Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.29 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.29Odds
1
Value bet: Cusco to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCusco to win ✗62% · @1.95
Double chanceCusco or draw ✗82% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.29
Cusco vs FBC Melgar preview and prediction
The match
FBC Melgar travel to Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in the Primera División on Saturday 12 September (01:00 WAT) to face Cusco. Cusco are 10th with 24 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while FBC Melgar sit 5th on 29 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Cusco's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat UCV Moquegua 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
FBC Melgar's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat ADT 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cusco arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Cusco and 0.9 for FBC Melgar. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 55% and both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cusco 62%, draw 20%, FBC Melgar 18%.
Safer route: Cusco or draw (82%) at 1.29.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Cusco to win at 1.95 – 62% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cusco or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.29, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cusco 1–0 FBC Melgar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cusco62%fair 1.62 · @1.95
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @3.25
FBC Melgar18%fair 5.47 · @3.60
2.90Expected goals
1.96Cusco xG
0.94FBC Melgar xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Cusco 2.0 – 0.9 FBC Melgar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cusco to win✗
62%
1.62
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Cusco or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.29 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Cusco ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cusco / FT Cusco✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.29
–
Form
Cusco – last 6
WWLWLW
6 Sep
vs UCV Moquegua
2–0
W
31 Aug
@ Cienciano
2–1
W
23 Aug
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
1–4
L
15 Aug
vs Juan Pablo II College
2–0
W
7 Aug
@ Comerciantes Unidos
1–3
L
2 Aug
vs UTC Cajamarca
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
FBC Melgar – last 6
WLDWLD
7 Sep
vs ADT
3–0
W
1 Sep
@ Atletico Grau
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Alianza Lima
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas
3–0
W
9 Aug
vs FC Cajamarca
2–4
L
2 Aug
@ UCV Moquegua
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cusco and FBC Melgar.
Our pick is Cusco or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Cusco vs FBC Melgar?
On our numbers Cusco have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and FBC Melgar 18%.
How many goals will there be in Cusco vs FBC Melgar?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cusco vs FBC Melgar?
Our predicted score is Cusco 1–0 FBC Melgar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Cusco vs FBC Melgar?
Cusco vs FBC Melgar (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
