Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: FBC Melgar to win @ 2.76 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFBC Melgar to win ✗39% · @2.76
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.70
Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División sees Atletico Grau take on FBC Melgar on Tuesday 1 September, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Miguel Grau. Atletico Grau are 11th with 21 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while FBC Melgar sit 5th on 29 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Atletico Grau's last 5: DWWDL Most recently they drew with Sport Boys 2–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
FBC Melgar's last 5: DWLDW Most recently they drew with Alianza Lima 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
FBC Melgar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished FBC Melgar 0–0 Atletico Grau.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Atletico Grau and 1.2 for FBC Melgar. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: FBC Melgar to win at 2.76 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Atletico Grau 1–1 FBC Melgar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Grau35%fair 2.83 · @2.65
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.05
FBC Melgar39%fair 2.55 · @2.76
2.36Expected goals
1.14Atletico Grau xG
1.22FBC Melgar xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Atletico Grau 1.1 – 1.2 FBC Melgar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar?
On our numbers Atletico Grau have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FBC Melgar 39%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar?
Our predicted score is Atletico Grau 1–1 FBC Melgar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar?
Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar (Primera División) kicks off on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Miguel Grau.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
