Value bet: Alianza Atletico to win @ 3.65 – our chance 35% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultADT to win ✗42% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.62
ADT vs Alianza Atletico preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División sees ADT take on Alianza Atletico on Saturday 15 August, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT). ADT are 16th with 12 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Alianza Atletico sit 7th on 28 points (in the top half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
ADT's last 5: DLLLW Most recently they drew with UTC Cajamarca 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Alianza Atletico's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Cienciano 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Alianza Atletico arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 February 2026, finished Alianza Atletico 0–0 ADT.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for ADT and 1.2 for Alianza Atletico. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Alianza Atletico to win at 3.65 – 35% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: ADT 1–1 Alianza Atletico. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ADT42%fair 2.36 · @1.98
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.45
Alianza Atletico35%fair 2.88 · @3.65
2.58Expected goals
1.37ADT xG
1.21Alianza Atletico xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: ADT 1.4 – 1.2 Alianza Atletico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for ADT vs Alianza Atletico?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win ADT vs Alianza Atletico?
On our numbers ADT have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alianza Atletico 35%.
How many goals will there be in ADT vs Alianza Atletico?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ADT vs Alianza Atletico?
Our predicted score is ADT 1–1 Alianza Atletico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is ADT vs Alianza Atletico?
ADT vs Alianza Atletico (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
