Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultThailand to win ✓73% · @1.30
Double chanceThailand or draw ✓90% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗10% · fair 10.50
Philippines vs Thailand preview and prediction
The match
Thailand travel to New Clark City Athletics Stadium in the ASEAN Championship on Tuesday 4 August (14:00 WAT) to face Philippines.
Form guide
Philippines's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Laos 4–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.2 goals a game.
Thailand's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Malaysia 2–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.0 for Philippines and 2.7 for Thailand. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 64% and both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.85 – 58% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Thailand to win – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Philippines 0–2 Thailand. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Philippines10%fair 9.80 · @8.60
Draw17%fair 5.96 · @4.60
Thailand73%fair 1.37 · @1.30
3.62Expected goals
0.95Philippines xG
2.67Thailand xG
58%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–210%
1–29%
0–38%
1–38%
0–17%
1–17%
From our goals model: Philippines 1.0 – 2.7 Thailand expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Thailand to win✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Double chance
Thailand or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.48
Half-time result
Thailand ahead at half-time✗
55%
1.81
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Thailand / FT Thailand✗
51%
1.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
10%
10.50
–
Form
Philippines – last 5
WLWWD
1 Aug
@ Laos
4–1
W
28 Jul
vs Myanmar
1–4
L
9 Jun
vs Myanmar
5–1
W
3 Jun
vs Guam
5–1
W
31 Mar
@ Tajikistan
1–1
D
3.2Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
100%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Thailand – last 5
WWDDW
1 Aug
vs Malaysia
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Laos
5–0
W
9 Jun
@ China
0–0
D
5 Jun
vs Kuwait
2–2
D
31 Mar
vs Turkmenistan
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Philippines and Thailand.
What is the prediction for Philippines vs Thailand?
Our pick is Thailand to win with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Philippines vs Thailand?
On our numbers Philippines have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Thailand 73%.
How many goals will there be in Philippines vs Thailand?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Philippines vs Thailand?
Our predicted score is Philippines 0–2 Thailand, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Philippines vs Thailand?
Philippines vs Thailand (ASEAN Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 4 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at New Clark City Athletics Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Myanmar7
Laos2