Value bet: Castellón to win @ 3.00 – our chance 39% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCastellón to win ✗39% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.80
Almeria vs Castellón preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División sees Almeria take on Castellón on Tuesday 9 June, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at UD Almeria Stadium. Almeria are 1st with 29 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Castellón sit 2nd on 27 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Almeria's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Castellón 1–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Castellón's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Almeria 1–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Castellón arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 June 2026, finished Castellón 1–1 Almeria. Across their last 2 meetings Almeria have won 0, Castellón 1, with 1 draw and 2.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.5 for Almeria and 1.6 for Castellón. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Castellón to win at 3.00 – 39% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Either team to win – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Almeria 1–2 Castellón. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Almeria38%fair 2.65 · @2.24
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.45
Castellón39%fair 2.54 · @3.00
3.13Expected goals
1.55Almeria xG
1.58Castellón xG
55%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–28%
2–18%
0–17%
1–07%
2–27%
From our goals model: Almeria 1.5 – 1.6 Castellón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Either team to win with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Almeria vs Castellón?
On our numbers Almeria have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Castellón 39%.
How many goals will there be in Almeria vs Castellón?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almeria vs Castellón?
Our predicted score is Almeria 1–2 Castellón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Almeria vs Castellón?
Almeria vs Castellón (Segunda División) kicks off on Tuesday 9 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at UD Almeria Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
