Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Castellón to win @ 1.81 – our chance 64% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCastellón to win ✗64% · @1.81
Double chanceCastellón or draw ✓88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.09
Castellón vs Almeria preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División sees Castellón take on Almeria on Saturday 6 June, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal Castalia. Castellón are 2nd with 27 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Almeria sit 1st on 29 points (top of the table). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Castellón's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Eibar 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Almeria's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Valladolid 1–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 April 2026, finished Castellón 2–0 Almeria.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.2 for Castellón and 0.9 for Almeria. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 62%.
Value angle: Castellón to win at 1.81 – 64% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Castellón or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Castellón 2–0 Almeria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Castellón64%fair 1.56 · @1.81
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.75
Almeria12%fair 8.34 · @4.00
3.06Expected goals
2.17Castellón xG
0.89Almeria xG
62%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Castellón 2.2 – 0.9 Almeria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Castellón or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Castellón vs Almeria?
On our numbers Castellón have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Almeria 12%.
How many goals will there be in Castellón vs Almeria?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Castellón vs Almeria?
Our predicted score is Castellón 2–0 Almeria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Castellón vs Almeria?
Castellón vs Almeria (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 6 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Castalia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
