Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 52% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓62% · @1.51
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓82% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.16
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima preview and prediction
The match
Deportes Tolima travel to Estadio Banco Guayaquil in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wednesday 26 August (01:30 WAT) to face Independiente del Valle. Independiente del Valle are 1st with 13 points from 6 games, while Deportes Tolima sit 2nd on 8 points.
Form guide
Independiente del Valle's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Leones del Norte 3–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportes Tolima's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Bucaramanga 0–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Independiente del Valle arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 19 August 2026, finished Deportes Tolima 0–1 Independiente del Valle.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Independiente del Valle and 0.7 for Deportes Tolima. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independiente del Valle 62%, draw 20%, Deportes Tolima 18%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 52% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Independiente del Valle 1–0 Deportes Tolima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente del Valle62%fair 1.61 · @1.51
Draw20%fair 5.09 · @3.90
Deportes Tolima18%fair 5.43 · @6.60
2.29Expected goals
1.60Independiente del Valle xG
0.69Deportes Tolima xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 1.6 – 0.7 Deportes Tolima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
62%
1.61
1.51
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.74
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Deportes Tolima 18%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 1–0 Deportes Tolima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima?
Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 26 August 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
