Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Guarani MG to win @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCAP to win ✗44% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.72
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.23
CAP vs Guarani MG preview and prediction
The match
CAP host Guarani MG in the Mineiro 2 on Saturday 4 July, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT).
Form guide
CAP's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Caldense 2–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Guarani MG's last 5: DWLDD Most recently they drew with Mamoré 2–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for CAP and 1.0 for Guarani MG. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: CAP 44%, draw 23%, Guarani MG 33%.
Value angle: Guarani MG to win at 3.50 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: CAP 1–0 Guarani MG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CAP44%fair 2.27 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @2.90
Guarani MG33%fair 3.07 · @3.50
2.15Expected goals
1.19CAP xG
0.96Guarani MG xG
42%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: CAP 1.2 – 1.0 Guarani MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CAP to win✗
44%
2.27
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CAP / FT CAP✗
23%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.23
–
Form
CAP – last 6
WLDWDD
1 Jul
@ Caldense
2–1
W
28 Jun
vs Uberaba
0–1
L
25 Jun
vs BOA
0–0
D
21 Jun
@ BOA
2–0
W
17 Jun
@ Uberaba
1–1
D
14 Jun
vs Caldense
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Guarani MG – last 6
DWLDDW
1 Jul
@ Mamoré
2–2
D
27 Jun
vs Caldense
2–0
W
23 Jun
@ Uberaba
1–2
L
20 Jun
vs Uberaba
2–2
D
17 Jun
@ Caldense
0–0
D
13 Jun
vs Mamoré
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CAP and Guarani MG.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win CAP vs Guarani MG?
On our numbers CAP have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Guarani MG 33%.
How many goals will there be in CAP vs Guarani MG?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CAP vs Guarani MG?
Our predicted score is CAP 1–0 Guarani MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is CAP vs Guarani MG?
CAP vs Guarani MG (Mineiro 2) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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