Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
Kauno Žalgiris or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Kauno Žalgiris to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultKauno Žalgiris to win ✓57% · @1.91
Double chanceKauno Žalgiris or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.86
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris preview and prediction
The match
Suduva Marijampole host Kauno Žalgiris in the A Lyga on Monday 19 October, with kick-off at 16:45 (WAT) at Marijampole Football Arena. Suduva Marijampole are 2nd with 56 points from 32 games (in the top four), while Kauno Žalgiris sit 1st on 58 points (top of the table). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Suduva Marijampole's last 5: LDDLW Most recently they lost to FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0–4 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Kauno Žalgiris's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Brighton 0–4 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Kauno Žalgiris arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 September 2026, finished Kauno Žalgiris 5–1 Suduva Marijampole. Across their last 2 meetings Suduva Marijampole have won 1, Kauno Žalgiris 1, with 0 draws and 4.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.9 for Suduva Marijampole and 1.7 for Kauno Žalgiris. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Suduva Marijampole 18%, draw 25%, Kauno Žalgiris 57%.
Safer route: Kauno Žalgiris or draw (82%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Kauno Žalgiris to win at 1.91 – 57% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Kauno Žalgiris or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Suduva Marijampole 0–1 Kauno Žalgiris. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Suduva Marijampole18%fair 5.49 · @3.80
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.00
Kauno Žalgiris57%fair 1.76 · @1.91
2.61Expected goals
0.88Suduva Marijampole xG
1.73Kauno Žalgiris xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–07%
1–06%
From our goals model: Suduva Marijampole 0.9 – 1.7 Kauno Žalgiris expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Our pick is Kauno Žalgiris or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
On our numbers Suduva Marijampole have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Kauno Žalgiris 57%.
How many goals will there be in Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Our predicted score is Suduva Marijampole 0–1 Kauno Žalgiris, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga) kicks off on Monday 19 October 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Marijampole Football Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
