Value bet: Suduva Marijampole to win @ 1.67 – our chance 64% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSuduva Marijampole to win ✓64% · @1.67
Double chanceSuduva Marijampole or draw ✓86% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.52
Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen preview and prediction
The match
Suduva Marijampole host Hegelmann Litauen in the A Lyga on Monday 20 July, with kick-off at 16:45 (WAT) at Marijampole Football Arena. Suduva Marijampole are 2nd with 56 points from 32 games (in the top four), while Hegelmann Litauen sit 8th on 26 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 30 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Suduva Marijampole's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with TransINVEST Vilnius 0–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Hegelmann Litauen's last 5: LDDLD Most recently they lost to Paide 0–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Suduva Marijampole arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Suduva Marijampole and 0.7 for Hegelmann Litauen. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Suduva Marijampole to win at 1.67 – 64% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Suduva Marijampole 1–0 Hegelmann Litauen. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Suduva Marijampole64%fair 1.56 · @1.67
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.40
Hegelmann Litauen14%fair 7.36 · @5.00
2.59Expected goals
1.84Suduva Marijampole xG
0.74Hegelmann Litauen xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Suduva Marijampole 1.8 – 0.7 Hegelmann Litauen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Suduva Marijampole to win✓
64%
1.56
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Suduva Marijampole or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.25
Half-time result
Suduva Marijampole ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Suduva Marijampole / FT Suduva Marijampole✓
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.52
–
Form
Suduva Marijampole – last 6
DWWWDW
6 Jul
vs TransINVEST Vilnius
0–0
D
29 Jun
@ Panevėžys
2–1
W
21 Jun
@ Džiugas Telšiai
2–1
W
16 Jun
vs Šiauliai
2–1
W
13 Jun
vs Banga
0–0
D
29 May
@ FK Trakai
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Hegelmann Litauen – last 6
LDDLDD
16 Jul
@ Paide
0–3
L
9 Jul
vs Paide
1–1
D
4 Jul
@ Panevėžys
1–1
D
28 Jun
@ Banga
0–2
L
17 Jun
vs Džiugas Telšiai
1–1
D
14 Jun
vs Kauno Žalgiris
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Suduva Marijampole and Hegelmann Litauen.
What is the prediction for Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen?
On our numbers Suduva Marijampole have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Hegelmann Litauen 14%.
How many goals will there be in Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen?
Our predicted score is Suduva Marijampole 1–0 Hegelmann Litauen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen?
Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen (A Lyga) kicks off on Monday 20 July 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Marijampole Football Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
