Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense prediction & analysis
83%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Atletico Paranaense to win @ 2.84 – our chance 43% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win ✗43% · @2.84
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.78
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Paranaense travel to Barradao in the Copa Do Brasil on Friday 7 August (00:00 WAT) to face Vitoria.
Form guide
Vitoria's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Atletico Paranaense 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Vitoria 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico Paranaense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 August 2026, finished Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Vitoria.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.9 for Vitoria and 1.1 for Atletico Paranaense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Value angle: Atletico Paranaense to win at 2.84 – 43% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 83% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Vitoria 0–1 Atletico Paranaense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vitoria35%fair 2.88 · @2.48
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.15
Atletico Paranaense43%fair 2.33 · @2.84
1.98Expected goals
0.91Vitoria xG
1.07Atletico Paranaense xG
52%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–014%
1–113%
1–013%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Vitoria 0.9 – 1.1 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Vitoria have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico Paranaense 43%.
How many goals will there be in Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Vitoria 0–1 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Friday 7 August 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Barradao.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Corinthians2
Internacional1