Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Paris Saint Germain to win @ 1.72 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultParis Saint Germain to win ✗62% · @1.72
Double chanceParis Saint Germain or draw ✗84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.07
Lens vs Paris Saint Germain preview and prediction
The match
Paris Saint Germain travel to Stade Bollaert-Delelis in the Trophée Des Champions on Sunday 16 August (19:45 WAT) to face Lens.
Form guide
Lens's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Sunderland 0–2 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game.
Paris Saint Germain's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Aston Villa 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Lens arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 May 2026, finished Lens 0–2 Paris Saint Germain.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.9 for Lens and 2.0 for Paris Saint Germain. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lens 16%, draw 22%, Paris Saint Germain 62%.
Safer route: Paris Saint Germain or draw (84%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Paris Saint Germain to win at 1.72 – 62% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Paris Saint Germain or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Lens 0–2 Paris Saint Germain. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lens16%fair 6.27 · @4.50
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.75
Paris Saint Germain62%fair 1.61 · @1.72
2.94Expected goals
0.92Lens xG
2.01Paris Saint Germain xG
61%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Lens 0.9 – 2.0 Paris Saint Germain expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Lens vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our pick is Paris Saint Germain or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lens vs Paris Saint Germain?
On our numbers Lens have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Paris Saint Germain 62%.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Paris Saint Germain?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lens vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our predicted score is Lens 0–2 Paris Saint Germain, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Lens vs Paris Saint Germain?
Lens vs Paris Saint Germain (Trophée Des Champions) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
