Value bet: Santa Fe to win @ 1.75 – our chance 63% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanta Fe to win ✓63% · @1.75
Double chanceSanta Fe or draw ✓88% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.93
Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena preview and prediction
The match
Union Magdalena travel to face Santa Fe in the Copa Colombia on Thursday 6 August (01:00 WAT).
Form guide
Santa Fe's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Once Caldas 2–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Union Magdalena's last 5: DLDDW Most recently they drew with Orsomarso 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Santa Fe arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Santa Fe and 0.7 for Union Magdalena. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santa Fe 63%, draw 25%, Union Magdalena 12%.
Safer route: Santa Fe or draw (88%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Santa Fe to win at 1.75 – 63% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Santa Fe 1–0 Union Magdalena. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santa Fe63%fair 1.58 · @1.75
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.75
Union Magdalena12%fair 8.35 · @4.75
2.55Expected goals
1.85Santa Fe xG
0.70Union Magdalena xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Santa Fe 1.9 – 0.7 Union Magdalena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Fe to win✓
63%
1.58
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Santa Fe or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Santa Fe ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Fe / FT Santa Fe✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.93
–
Form
Santa Fe – last 6
DWLWWW
3 Aug
vs Once Caldas
2–2
D
31 Jul
@ Caracas FC
3–0
W
26 Jul
@ Águilas Doradas
1–2
L
24 Jul
vs Caracas FC
2–0
W
28 May
@ Penarol
1–0
W
20 May
vs Platense
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Union Magdalena – last 6
DLDDWL
1 Aug
vs Orsomarso
0–0
D
25 Jul
@ Bogota FC
0–1
L
21 May
vs Bogota FC
0–0
D
17 May
@ Barranquilla
1–1
D
12 May
vs Real Cartagena
3–0
W
9 May
@ Real Cartagena
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Fe and Union Magdalena.
What is the prediction for Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena?
On our numbers Santa Fe have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Union Magdalena 12%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena?
Our predicted score is Santa Fe 1–0 Union Magdalena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena?
Santa Fe vs Union Magdalena (Copa Colombia) kicks off on Thursday 6 August 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
