Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Tropezón to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTropezón to win ✓60% · @1.95
Double chanceTropezón or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 6.02
Tropezón vs Guarnizo preview and prediction
The match
Guarnizo travel to face Tropezón in the Tercera División RFEF Group 3 on Sunday 24 May (17:00 WAT). Tropezón are 1st with 26 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Guarnizo sit 13th on 8 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tropezón's last 5: DDLWD Most recently they drew with Guarnizo 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Guarnizo's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Tropezón 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Guarnizo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Guarnizo 0–0 Tropezón.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Tropezón and 0.7 for Guarnizo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 44%.
Value angle: Tropezón to win at 1.95 – 60% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tropezón or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tropezón 1–0 Guarnizo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tropezón60%fair 1.68 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.00
Guarnizo15%fair 6.77 · @3.70
2.27Expected goals
1.60Tropezón xG
0.66Guarnizo xG
44%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Tropezón 1.6 – 0.7 Guarnizo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Tropezón or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tropezón vs Guarnizo?
On our numbers Tropezón have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Guarnizo 15%.
How many goals will there be in Tropezón vs Guarnizo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tropezón vs Guarnizo?
Our predicted score is Tropezón 1–0 Guarnizo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Tropezón vs Guarnizo?
Tropezón vs Guarnizo (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
