Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.80 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
2
Value bet: Lagun Onak to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDerio to win ✓39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.51
Derio vs Lagun Onak preview and prediction
The match
Lagun Onak travel to face Derio in the Tercera División RFEF Group 4 on Sunday 24 May (17:00 WAT). Derio are 5th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Lagun Onak sit 13th on 11 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Derio's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Lagun Onak 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Lagun Onak's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Derio 2–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Lagun Onak 2–0 Derio.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Derio and 1.3 for Lagun Onak. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derio 39%, draw 26%, Lagun Onak 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Lagun Onak to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.68, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Derio 1–1 Lagun Onak. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derio39%fair 2.59 · @2.30
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @2.88
Lagun Onak36%fair 2.80 · @3.00
2.66Expected goals
1.36Derio xG
1.30Lagun Onak xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Derio 1.4 – 1.3 Lagun Onak expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Derio vs Lagun Onak?
On our numbers Derio have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lagun Onak 36%.
How many goals will there be in Derio vs Lagun Onak?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derio vs Lagun Onak?
Our predicted score is Derio 1–1 Lagun Onak, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Derio vs Lagun Onak?
Derio vs Lagun Onak (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
