Tercera División RFEF Group 11 · Spain
Peña Deportiva vs Constància prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.86 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Peña Deportiva 1.4 – 1.2 Constància expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Peña Deportiva hold the edge on home soil with a 42% chance of winning, against 34% for Constància.
Peña Deportiva have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. Constància have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.5 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.4 for Peña Deportiva, 1.2 for Constància). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Peña Deportiva have won 1, Constància have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 54% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is close to our fair price of 1.86.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Peña Deportiva to win ✓ | 42% | 2.39 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.98 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.32 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Peña Deportiva / FT Peña Deportiva ✓ | 24% | 4.21 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.78 | – |
Form
Peña Deportiva – last 6
| 10 May | vs Collerense | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Apr | vs Mallorca II | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Apr | @ Platges Calvià | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Mar | vs Formentera | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | vs Llosetense | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Mar | vs Constància | 2–1 | W |
Constància – last 6
| 10 May | vs Inter Ibiza | 3–0 | W |
| 3 May | @ Rotlet Molinar | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Apr | vs Collerense | 4–0 | W |
| 1 Apr | vs Santanyí | 3–0 | W |
| 4 Mar | @ Peña Deportiva | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Feb | vs Mallorca II | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 4 Mar 2026 | Peña Deportiva v Constància | 2–1 |
Tercera División RFEF Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Platges Calvià | 10 | +14 | 24 |
| 2 |  Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 9 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Constància | 10 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  Manacor | 9 | +9 | 18 |
| 5 |  Porreres | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 6 |  PE Sant Jordi | 9 | +6 | 16 |
| 7 |  Llosetense | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 |  Cardassar | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 9 |  Formentera | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 10 |  Santanyí | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Binissalem | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alcúdia | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Andratx | 10 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 |  Mercadal | 10 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 |  Sineu | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 |  Migjorn | 10 | -13 | 5 |
| 17 |  Inter Ibiza | 9 | -15 | 5 |
| 18 |  Arenal | 9 | -14 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Peña Deportiva vs Constància?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Peña Deportiva vs Constància?
On our numbers Peña Deportiva have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Constància 34%.
How many goals will there be in Peña Deportiva vs Constància?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Peña Deportiva vs Constància?
Peña Deportiva vs Constància (Tercera División RFEF Group 11) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.