Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Lahti to win @ 1.75 – our chance 64% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLahti to win ✓64% · @1.75
Double chanceLahti or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.05
Mariehamn vs Lahti preview and prediction
The match
Mariehamn host Lahti in the Suomen Cup on Tuesday 26 May, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Mariehamn's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to FF Jaro 0–3 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Lahti's last 5: LDWDL Most recently they lost to KuPS 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished Lahti 1–1 Mariehamn. Across their last 2 meetings Mariehamn have won 1, Lahti 0, with 1 draw and 3.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.2 goals: 1.4 for Mariehamn and 2.8 for Lahti. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mariehamn 16%, draw 20%, Lahti 64%.
Safer route: Lahti or draw (84%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Lahti to win at 1.75 – 64% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lahti or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Mariehamn 1–2 Lahti. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mariehamn16%fair 6.31 · @4.00
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.25
Lahti64%fair 1.57 · @1.75
4.17Expected goals
1.41Mariehamn xG
2.76Lahti xG
62%Both score
79%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–38%
1–16%
2–26%
0–26%
2–35%
From our goals model: Mariehamn 1.4 – 2.8 Lahti expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Lahti or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Mariehamn vs Lahti?
On our numbers Mariehamn have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Lahti 64%.
How many goals will there be in Mariehamn vs Lahti?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Our predicted score is Mariehamn 1–2 Lahti, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.2 goals in total.
When is Mariehamn vs Lahti?
Mariehamn vs Lahti (Suomen Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 26 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Suomen Cup · Finland
JäPS0
KuPS1
Honka5
VJS1