Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
1
Value bet: Fenix to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFenix to win ✗56% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.94
Fenix vs Tacuarembo preview and prediction
The match
Fenix host Tacuarembo in the Segunda División on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Parque Capurro. Fenix are 12th with 31 points from 26 games (in the bottom three), while Tacuarembo sit 13th on 26 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Fenix's last 4: WWWD Most recently they beat Oriental 1–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Tacuarembo's last 4: LLLD Most recently they lost to Atenas 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Fenix arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 April 2026, finished Fenix 3–2 Tacuarembo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.5 for Fenix and 0.8 for Tacuarembo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fenix 56%, draw 22%, Tacuarembo 22%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Fenix to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Fenix 1–1 Tacuarembo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fenix56%fair 1.78 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.10
Tacuarembo22%fair 4.50 · @3.75
2.37Expected goals
1.54Fenix xG
0.83Tacuarembo xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
0–09%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Fenix 1.5 – 0.8 Tacuarembo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Fenix vs Tacuarembo?
On our numbers Fenix have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tacuarembo 22%.
How many goals will there be in Fenix vs Tacuarembo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fenix vs Tacuarembo?
Our predicted score is Fenix 1–1 Tacuarembo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Fenix vs Tacuarembo?
Fenix vs Tacuarembo (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Capurro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
