Value bet: Cruz Azul to win @ 3.10 – our chance 38% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuadalajara Chivas to win ✗39% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.91
Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX sees Guadalajara Chivas take on Cruz Azul on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 02:07 (WAT) at Estadio Akron. Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd with 30 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Cruz Azul sit 1st on 32 points (top of the table). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Guadalajara Chivas's last 5: DWLDD Most recently they drew with Cruz Azul 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cruz Azul's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Guadalajara Chivas 2–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Cruz Azul arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 14 May 2026, finished Cruz Azul 2–2 Guadalajara Chivas. Across their last 2 meetings Guadalajara Chivas have won 0, Cruz Azul 1, with 1 draw and 3.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Guadalajara Chivas and 1.4 for Cruz Azul. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 61%.
Value angle: Cruz Azul to win at 3.10 – 38% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Cruz Azul. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guadalajara Chivas39%fair 2.58 · @2.18
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.45
Cruz Azul38%fair 2.61 · @3.10
2.84Expected goals
1.43Guadalajara Chivas xG
1.42Cruz Azul xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Guadalajara Chivas 1.4 – 1.4 Cruz Azul expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul?
On our numbers Guadalajara Chivas have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cruz Azul 38%.
How many goals will there be in Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul?
Our predicted score is Guadalajara Chivas 1–1 Cruz Azul, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul?
Guadalajara Chivas vs Cruz Azul (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 02:07 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Akron.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
