River Plate vs Gimnasia L.P. prediction & analysis
78%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 52% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiver Plate to win ✓62% · @1.52
Double chanceRiver Plate or draw ✓83% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.06
River Plate vs Gimnasia L.P. preview and prediction
The match
Gimnasia L.P. travel to Estadio Monumental in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Thursday 14 May (01:45 WAT) to face River Plate. River Plate are 7th with 55 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Gimnasia L.P. sit 5th on 57 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
River Plate's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Carabobo FC 2–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gimnasia L.P.'s last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Velez Sarsfield 1–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
River Plate arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for River Plate and 0.7 for Gimnasia L.P.. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: River Plate 62%, draw 21%, Gimnasia L.P. 17%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.25.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 52% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: River Plate 1–0 Gimnasia L.P.. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
River Plate62%fair 1.60 · @1.52
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.75
Gimnasia L.P.17%fair 5.93 · @7.00
2.34Expected goals
1.66River Plate xG
0.69Gimnasia L.P. xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: River Plate 1.7 – 0.7 Gimnasia L.P. expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
River Plate to win✓
62%
1.60
1.52
Double chance
River Plate or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT River Plate / FT River Plate✓
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.06
–
Form
River Plate – last 6
WWWWWD
8 May
@ Carabobo FC
2–1
W
1 May
@ RB Bragantino
1–0
W
26 Apr
vs Aldosivi
3–1
W
16 Apr
vs Carabobo FC
1–0
W
13 Apr
@ Racing Club
2–0
W
9 Apr
@ Blooming
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Gimnasia L.P. – last 6
WWWWLL
11 May
@ Velez Sarsfield
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Acassuso
3–0
W
13 Apr
@ Sarmiento Junin
2–1
W
10 Apr
vs Deportivo Camioneros
4–1
W
5 Apr
vs Huracan
0–3
L
21 Mar
@ Atletico Tucuman
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between River Plate and Gimnasia L.P..
What is the prediction for River Plate vs Gimnasia L.P.?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win River Plate vs Gimnasia L.P.?
On our numbers River Plate have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Gimnasia L.P. 17%.
How many goals will there be in River Plate vs Gimnasia L.P.?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for River Plate vs Gimnasia L.P.?
Our predicted score is River Plate 1–0 Gimnasia L.P., the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is River Plate vs Gimnasia L.P.?
River Plate vs Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 01:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Monumental.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
