Value bet: Independiente F.b.c. to win @ 3.00 – our chance 40% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente F.b.c. to win ✗40% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.47
Fernando De La Mora vs Independiente F.b.c. preview and prediction
The match
Fernando De La Mora host Independiente F.b.c. in the Division Intermedia on Thursday 14 May, with kick-off at 23:30 (WAT). Fernando De La Mora are 12th with 34 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while Independiente F.b.c. sit 6th on 43 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Fernando De La Mora's last 4: WWLL Most recently they beat Atlético Tembetary 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente F.b.c.'s last 3: WDW Most recently they beat Guairena FC 2–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente F.b.c. arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Fernando De La Mora and 1.1 for Independiente F.b.c.. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fernando De La Mora 34%, draw 26%, Independiente F.b.c. 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Independiente F.b.c. to win at 3.00 – 40% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 2.05, above our fair price of 1.95, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Fernando De La Mora 1–1 Independiente F.b.c.. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fernando De La Mora34%fair 2.97 · @2.40
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @2.75
Independiente F.b.c.40%fair 2.49 · @3.00
2.08Expected goals
0.98Fernando De La Mora xG
1.10Independiente F.b.c. xG
51%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–012%
1–012%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Fernando De La Mora 1.0 – 1.1 Independiente F.b.c. expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente F.b.c. to win✗
40%
2.49
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.40
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.63
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente F.b.c. / FT Independiente F.b.c.✗
21%
4.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.47
–
Form
Fernando De La Mora – last 4
WWLL
4 May
vs Atlético Tembetary
1–0
W
26 Apr
@ Benjamín Aceval
1–0
W
21 Apr
vs Sportivo Carapeguá
0–1
L
6 Apr
vs Encarnación
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Independiente F.b.c. – last 3
WDW
26 Apr
vs Guairena FC
2–0
W
17 Apr
@ Resistencia
0–0
D
10 Apr
vs SOL DE America
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fernando De La Mora and Independiente F.b.c..
What is the prediction for Fernando De La Mora vs Independiente F.b.c.?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.05.
Who will win Fernando De La Mora vs Independiente F.b.c.?
On our numbers Fernando De La Mora have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Independiente F.b.c. 40%.
How many goals will there be in Fernando De La Mora vs Independiente F.b.c.?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fernando De La Mora vs Independiente F.b.c.?
Our predicted score is Fernando De La Mora 1–1 Independiente F.b.c., the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Fernando De La Mora vs Independiente F.b.c.?
Fernando De La Mora vs Independiente F.b.c. (Division Intermedia) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
