Value bet: Brasil DE Pelotas to win @ 2.45 – our chance 46% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBrasil DE Pelotas to win ✗46% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.64
Bagé vs Brasil DE Pelotas preview and prediction
The match
Bagé host Brasil DE Pelotas in the Copa Gaúcha on Thursday 4 June, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Bagé's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to Brasil DE Pelotas 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Brasil DE Pelotas's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Blumenau 1–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 May 2026, finished Brasil DE Pelotas 1–0 Bagé.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.7 for Bagé and 1.0 for Brasil DE Pelotas. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bagé 31%, draw 24%, Brasil DE Pelotas 46%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Brasil DE Pelotas to win at 2.45 – 46% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Bagé 0–1 Brasil DE Pelotas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bagé31%fair 3.25 · @2.85
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @2.95
Brasil DE Pelotas46%fair 2.19 · @2.45
1.73Expected goals
0.73Bagé xG
1.00Brasil DE Pelotas xG
49%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–118%
0–018%
1–113%
1–013%
0–29%
1–26%
From our goals model: Bagé 0.7 – 1.0 Brasil DE Pelotas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Bagé vs Brasil DE Pelotas?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Bagé vs Brasil DE Pelotas?
On our numbers Bagé have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Brasil DE Pelotas 46%.
How many goals will there be in Bagé vs Brasil DE Pelotas?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bagé vs Brasil DE Pelotas?
Our predicted score is Bagé 0–1 Brasil DE Pelotas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Bagé vs Brasil DE Pelotas?
Bagé vs Brasil DE Pelotas (Copa Gaúcha) kicks off on Thursday 4 June 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Gaúcha · Brazil
