Value bet: Brasil DE Pelotas to win @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBrasil DE Pelotas to win ✓58% · @1.91
Double chanceBrasil DE Pelotas or draw ✓80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.66
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓21% · fair 4.85
Brasil DE Pelotas vs Bagé preview and prediction
The match
Bagé travel to face Brasil DE Pelotas in the Copa Gaúcha on Wednesday 27 May (23:30 WAT).
Form guide
Brasil DE Pelotas's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Independiente FSJ 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.2 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.3 for Brasil DE Pelotas and 0.5 for Bagé. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Brasil DE Pelotas 58%, draw 22%, Bagé 20%.
Safer route: Brasil DE Pelotas or draw (80%) at 1.17.
Value angle: Brasil DE Pelotas to win at 1.91 – 58% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Brasil DE Pelotas 1–0 Bagé. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Brasil DE Pelotas58%fair 1.74 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @2.88
Bagé20%fair 5.02 · @4.20
1.81Expected goals
1.26Brasil DE Pelotas xG
0.55Bagé xG
40%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
0–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–19%
2–17%
From our goals model: Brasil DE Pelotas 1.3 – 0.5 Bagé expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Brasil DE Pelotas to win✓
58%
1.74
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Brasil DE Pelotas or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Brasil DE Pelotas / FT Brasil DE Pelotas✓
31%
3.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
21%
4.85
–
Form
Brasil DE Pelotas – last 5
DWDWW
24 May
@ Independiente FSJ
0–0
D
21 May
@ Farroupilha
1–0
W
17 May
vs Sao Jose
0–0
D
13 May
vs Guarany de Bagé
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs Azuriz
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Bagé – last 2
WW
21 May
@ Guarany de Bagé
1–0
W
14 May
vs Farroupilha
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Brasil DE Pelotas and Bagé.
What is the prediction for Brasil DE Pelotas vs Bagé?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Brasil DE Pelotas vs Bagé?
On our numbers Brasil DE Pelotas have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bagé 20%.
How many goals will there be in Brasil DE Pelotas vs Bagé?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Brasil DE Pelotas vs Bagé?
Our predicted score is Brasil DE Pelotas 1–0 Bagé, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Brasil DE Pelotas vs Bagé?
Brasil DE Pelotas vs Bagé (Copa Gaúcha) kicks off on Wednesday 27 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Gaúcha · Brazil
