Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Adelaide United to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAuckland to win ✗45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.16
Auckland vs Adelaide United preview and prediction
The match
Auckland host Adelaide United in the A League on Saturday 9 May, with kick-off at 07:00 (WAT) at Mount Smart Stadium. Auckland are 8th with 5 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Adelaide United sit 12th on 1 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Auckland's last 5: DLDDL Most recently they drew with Sydney 2–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Adelaide United's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Melbourne City 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Adelaide United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 April 2026, finished Adelaide United 1–1 Auckland.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.6 for Auckland and 1.4 for Adelaide United. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 57% and both teams to score at 63%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Auckland 45%, draw 20%, Adelaide United 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Adelaide United to win at 3.25 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Auckland 1–1 Adelaide United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Auckland45%fair 2.24 · @2.05
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.65
Adelaide United35%fair 2.85 · @3.25
2.96Expected goals
1.59Auckland xG
1.37Adelaide United xG
63%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Auckland 1.6 – 1.4 Adelaide United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Auckland vs Adelaide United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Auckland vs Adelaide United?
On our numbers Auckland have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Adelaide United 35%.
How many goals will there be in Auckland vs Adelaide United?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Auckland vs Adelaide United?
Our predicted score is Auckland 1–1 Adelaide United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Auckland vs Adelaide United?
Auckland vs Adelaide United (A League) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 07:00 (West Africa Time) at Mount Smart Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
