Value bet: CD Olimpia to win @ 1.77 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCD Olimpia to win ✓60% · @1.77
Double chanceCD Olimpia or draw ✓84% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.60
CD Olimpia vs CD Marathon preview and prediction
The match
CD Olimpia host CD Marathon in the Liga Nacional on Thursday 7 May, with kick-off at 03:15 (WAT) at Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles. CD Olimpia are 1st with 33 points from 14 games (top of the table), while CD Marathon sit 3rd on 28 points (in the top four).
Form guide
CD Olimpia's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Platense FC 4–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
CD Marathon's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Atlético Choloma 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
CD Olimpia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 23 April 2026, finished CD Olimpia 2–1 CD Marathon.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for CD Olimpia and 0.8 for CD Marathon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: CD Olimpia 60%, draw 24%, CD Marathon 16%.
Safer route: CD Olimpia or draw (84%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Value angle: CD Olimpia to win at 1.77 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: CD Olimpia 1–0 CD Marathon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CD Olimpia60%fair 1.66 · @1.77
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.20
CD Marathon16%fair 6.41 · @4.50
2.59Expected goals
1.75CD Olimpia xG
0.84CD Marathon xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: CD Olimpia 1.8 – 0.8 CD Marathon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for CD Olimpia vs CD Marathon?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win CD Olimpia vs CD Marathon?
On our numbers CD Olimpia have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and CD Marathon 16%.
How many goals will there be in CD Olimpia vs CD Marathon?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CD Olimpia vs CD Marathon?
Our predicted score is CD Olimpia 1–0 CD Marathon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is CD Olimpia vs CD Marathon?
CD Olimpia vs CD Marathon (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Thursday 7 May 2026 at 03:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
