Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: CD Motagua to win @ 1.73 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCD Motagua to win ✗62% · @1.73
Double chanceCD Motagua or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 9.21
Génesis vs CD Motagua preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Nacional sees Génesis take on CD Motagua on Monday 4 May, kicking off at 01:15 (WAT) at Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova. Génesis are 8th with 15 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while CD Motagua sit 4th on 28 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Génesis's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Olancho 2–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
CD Motagua's last 5: LDWWL Most recently they lost to Lobos Upnfm 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Génesis arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 April 2026, finished CD Motagua 3–1 Génesis.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.9 for Génesis and 2.0 for CD Motagua. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 56% and both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Génesis 15%, draw 23%, CD Motagua 62%.
Safer route: CD Motagua or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.57.
Value angle: CD Motagua to win at 1.73 – 62% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Génesis 0–2 CD Motagua. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Génesis15%fair 6.55 · @4.10
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.65
CD Motagua62%fair 1.61 · @1.73
2.94Expected goals
0.91Génesis xG
2.02CD Motagua xG
57%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Génesis 0.9 – 2.0 CD Motagua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Génesis vs CD Motagua?
On our numbers Génesis have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 23% and CD Motagua 62%.
How many goals will there be in Génesis vs CD Motagua?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Génesis vs CD Motagua?
Our predicted score is Génesis 0–2 CD Motagua, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Génesis vs CD Motagua?
Génesis vs CD Motagua (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 01:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
