Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 57% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultArbroath to win ✗42% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.79
Arbroath vs Dunfermline preview and prediction
The match
Dunfermline travel to Gayfield Park in the Premiership on Friday 8 May (19:30 WAT) to face Arbroath.
Form guide
Arbroath's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to Dunfermline 0–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Dunfermline's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat Arbroath 1–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Dunfermline arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 May 2026, finished Dunfermline 1–0 Arbroath. Across their last 3 meetings Arbroath have won 1, Dunfermline 1, with 1 draw and 2.3 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.0 for Arbroath and 0.9 for Dunfermline. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 57% likely.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 – 57% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.42, above our fair price of 1.31, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Arbroath 1–0 Dunfermline. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arbroath42%fair 2.39 · @2.08
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.50
Dunfermline36%fair 2.80 · @3.10
1.95Expected goals
1.03Arbroath xG
0.92Dunfermline xG
57%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Arbroath 1.0 – 0.9 Dunfermline expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
On our numbers Arbroath have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Dunfermline 36%.
How many goals will there be in Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
Our predicted score is Arbroath 1–0 Dunfermline, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
Arbroath vs Dunfermline (Premiership) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Gayfield Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
