Value bet: Al Nasr to win @ 1.80 – our chance 65% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl Nasr to win ✓65% · @1.80
Double chanceAl Nasr or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.18
Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba preview and prediction
The match
Al Nasr host Al-Ittihad Kalba in the Pro League on Monday 11 May, with kick-off at 15:10 (WAT) at Al Maktoum Stadium. Al Nasr are 7th with 11 points from 7 games (in the top half), while Al-Ittihad Kalba sit 9th on 8 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Al Nasr's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 5: DLDDL Most recently they drew with Khorfakkan 0–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Al Nasr arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Al Nasr and 0.8 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al Nasr 65%, draw 22%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 14%.
Safer route: Al Nasr or draw (86%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Al Nasr to win at 1.80 – 65% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Al Nasr 2–0 Al-Ittihad Kalba. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al Nasr65%fair 1.55 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.55
Al-Ittihad Kalba14%fair 7.30 · @4.00
2.79Expected goals
1.99Al Nasr xG
0.80Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: Al Nasr 2.0 – 0.8 Al-Ittihad Kalba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Nasr to win✓
65%
1.55
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Al Nasr or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.87
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Half-time result
Al Nasr ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Nasr / FT Al Nasr✓
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.18
–
Form
Al Nasr – last 6
LWDWDD
6 May
@ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1–2
L
24 Apr
vs Al-Jazira
3–2
W
18 Mar
vs Al Bataeh
1–1
D
11 Mar
@ Sharjah FC
2–1
W
27 Feb
@ Dibba Al-Fujairah
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Khorfakkan
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Al-Ittihad Kalba – last 6
DLDDLD
5 May
vs Khorfakkan
0–0
D
23 Apr
vs Baniyas SC
1–2
L
9 Apr
@ Al Wahda FC
2–2
D
17 Mar
vs Sharjah FC
2–2
D
11 Mar
@ Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1–5
L
26 Feb
vs Al-Dhafra
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Nasr and Al-Ittihad Kalba.
What is the prediction for Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
On our numbers Al Nasr have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 14%.
How many goals will there be in Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our predicted score is Al Nasr 2–0 Al-Ittihad Kalba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al Nasr vs Al-Ittihad Kalba (Pro League) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 15:10 (West Africa Time) at Al Maktoum Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
