Value bet: Tepatitlán to win @ 3.55 – our chance 35% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMineros de Zacatecas to win ✗44% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.39
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán preview and prediction
The match
Mineros de Zacatecas host Tepatitlán in the Liga De Expansión MX on Friday 1 May, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba. Mineros de Zacatecas are 10th with 18 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Tepatitlán sit 16th on 7 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Mineros de Zacatecas's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Monarcas 0–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Tepatitlán's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Atlante FC 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 March 2026, finished Tepatitlán 4–0 Mineros de Zacatecas.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Mineros de Zacatecas and 1.3 for Tepatitlán. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mineros de Zacatecas 44%, draw 21%, Tepatitlán 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Tepatitlán to win at 3.55 – 35% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Mineros de Zacatecas 1–1 Tepatitlán. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mineros de Zacatecas44%fair 2.28 · @2.00
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
Tepatitlán35%fair 2.82 · @3.55
2.71Expected goals
1.45Mineros de Zacatecas xG
1.26Tepatitlán xG
61%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Mineros de Zacatecas 1.4 – 1.3 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mineros de Zacatecas to win✗
44%
2.28
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.65
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mineros de Zacatecas / FT Mineros de Zacatecas✗
What is the prediction for Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers Mineros de Zacatecas have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Tepatitlán 35%.
How many goals will there be in Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán?
Our predicted score is Mineros de Zacatecas 1–1 Tepatitlán, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán?
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
