Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: CF Pachuca to win @ 3.15 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✗43% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.32
CF Pachuca vs Toluca preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX sees CF Pachuca take on Toluca on Monday 11 May, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo. CF Pachuca are 8th with 22 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Toluca sit 4th on 27 points (in the top four).
Form guide
CF Pachuca's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Toluca 1–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Toluca's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Los Angeles FC 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
CF Pachuca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 May 2026, finished Toluca 0–1 CF Pachuca. Across their last 2 meetings CF Pachuca have won 1, Toluca 0, with 1 draw and 1.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.3 for CF Pachuca and 1.5 for Toluca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 64%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: CF Pachuca to win at 3.15 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: CF Pachuca 1–1 Toluca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CF Pachuca35%fair 2.85 · @3.15
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.60
Toluca43%fair 2.35 · @2.10
2.86Expected goals
1.35CF Pachuca xG
1.51Toluca xG
64%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–08%
0–27%
From our goals model: CF Pachuca 1.3 – 1.5 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
On our numbers CF Pachuca have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Toluca 43%.
How many goals will there be in CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is CF Pachuca 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
CF Pachuca vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
