Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Toluca to win @ 1.78 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✗64% · @1.78
Double chanceToluca or draw ✗84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.60
Toluca vs CF Pachuca preview and prediction
The match
Toluca host CF Pachuca in the Liga MX on Monday 4 May, with kick-off at 02:15 (WAT) at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Toluca are 4th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top four), while CF Pachuca sit 8th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Toluca's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Los Angeles FC 1–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
CF Pachuca's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
CF Pachuca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 23 March 2026, finished Pachuca 1–1 Toluca.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Toluca and 0.9 for CF Pachuca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Toluca to win at 1.78 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Toluca or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Toluca 1–0 CF Pachuca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toluca64%fair 1.56 · @1.78
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.70
CF Pachuca16%fair 6.29 · @4.20
2.83Expected goals
1.98Toluca xG
0.86CF Pachuca xG
57%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.0 – 0.9 CF Pachuca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Toluca or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
On our numbers Toluca have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and CF Pachuca 16%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
Our predicted score is Toluca 1–0 CF Pachuca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
Toluca vs CF Pachuca (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 02:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
