Sweden vs Greece prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.33 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Greece to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sweden 1.2 – 0.9 Greece expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Sweden hold the edge on home soil with a 47% chance of winning, against 32% for Greece.
Sweden have taken 6 points from their last 3 matches (2W 0D 1L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 2.0 per game. Greece have 1 points from their last 2 (0W 1D 1L), averaging 0.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. Sweden come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.2 for Sweden, 0.9 for Greece). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 56% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is close to our fair price of 1.31. For a bigger price, Greece to win at 3.50 is our value angle (32% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sweden to win ✗ | 47% | 2.11 | 2.02 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.83 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.46 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.90 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 77% | 1.31 | 1.33 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.11 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Sweden / FT Sweden ✗ | 25% | 4.01 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.13 | – |
Form
Sweden – last 3
| 1 Jun | @ Norway | 1–3 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Poland | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Mar | @ Ukraine | 3–1 | W |
Greece – last 2
| 31 Mar | @ Hungary | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Mar | vs Paraguay | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sweden and Greece.
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Liechtenstein0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sweden vs Greece?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Sweden vs Greece?
On our numbers Sweden have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Greece 32%.
How many goals will there be in Sweden vs Greece?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Sweden vs Greece?
Sweden vs Greece (Friendlies) kicks off on Thursday 4 June 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Strawberry Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.