Value bet: Union Magdalena to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultReal Cartagena to win ✓41% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.58
Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena preview and prediction
The match
Real Cartagena host Union Magdalena in the Primera B on Saturday 9 May, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT). Real Cartagena are 3rd with 5 points from 4 games (in the top four), while Union Magdalena sit 3rd on 4 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Real Cartagena's last 5: WDLWD Most recently they beat Bogota FC 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Union Magdalena's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat Barranquilla 2–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 23 March 2026, finished Real Cartagena 2–1 Union Magdalena.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Real Cartagena and 1.2 for Union Magdalena. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 59%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Real Cartagena 41%, draw 24%, Union Magdalena 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Union Magdalena to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Real Cartagena 1–1 Union Magdalena. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Real Cartagena41%fair 2.43 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.25
Union Magdalena35%fair 2.86 · @3.10
2.55Expected goals
1.34Real Cartagena xG
1.21Union Magdalena xG
59%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Real Cartagena 1.3 – 1.2 Union Magdalena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena?
On our numbers Real Cartagena have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Union Magdalena 35%.
How many goals will there be in Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena?
Our predicted score is Real Cartagena 1–1 Union Magdalena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena?
Real Cartagena vs Union Magdalena (Primera B) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
