Bulgaria vs Montenegro prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.38 · bookmaker 1.42 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Montenegro to win @ 2.50 – our chance 48% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Bulgaria 1.2 – 1.7 Montenegro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Montenegro shade it despite being away from home – 48% to win, against 29% for Bulgaria.
Bulgaria have taken 6 points from their last 2 matches (2W 0D 0L), scoring 5.5 and conceding 1.0 per game. Montenegro have 3 points from their last 2 (1W 0D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded. Bulgaria come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.2 for Bulgaria, 1.7 for Montenegro). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.42 is better than our fair price of 1.38, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Montenegro to win at 2.50 is our value angle (48% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Montenegro to win ✓ | 48% | 2.07 | 2.50 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.93 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 73% | 1.38 | 1.42 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.96 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 40% | 2.50 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Montenegro / FT Montenegro ✗ | 29% | 3.47 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 10.61 | – |
Form
Bulgaria – last 2
| 30 Mar | @ Indonesia | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Mar | @ Solomon Islands | 10–2 | W |
Montenegro – last 2
| 31 Mar | vs Slovenia | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Mar | vs Andorra | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bulgaria and Montenegro.
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Tunisia0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bulgaria vs Montenegro?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Bulgaria vs Montenegro?
On our numbers Bulgaria have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Montenegro 48%.
How many goals will there be in Bulgaria vs Montenegro?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Bulgaria vs Montenegro?
Bulgaria vs Montenegro (Friendlies) kicks off on Monday 1 June 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Hristo Botev Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.