Norway vs Sweden prediction & analysis
Norway or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Norway 1.5 – 0.7 Sweden expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Norway hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 18% for Sweden.
Norway have taken 1 points from their last 2 matches (0W 1D 1L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.0 per game. Sweden have 6 points from their last 2 (2W 0D 0L), averaging 3.0 scored and 1.5 conceded. Sweden come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.5 for Norway, 0.7 for Sweden). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 56% likely. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–0 (18%), 2–0 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
Our pick is Norway or draw at a 82% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.22. For a bigger price, Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 is our value angle (56% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Norway to win ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Norway or draw ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.87 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.46 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.77 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.38 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Norway / FT Norway ✓ | 34% | 2.93 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 18% | 5.69 | – |
Form
Norway – last 2
| 31 Mar | vs Switzerland | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Mar | @ Netherlands | 1–2 | L |
Sweden – last 2
| 31 Mar | vs Poland | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Mar | @ Ukraine | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Norway and Sweden.
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Tunisia0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Norway vs Sweden?
Our pick is Norway or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Norway vs Sweden?
On our numbers Norway have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sweden 18%.
How many goals will there be in Norway vs Sweden?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Norway vs Sweden?
Norway vs Sweden (Friendlies) kicks off on Monday 1 June 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Ullevaal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.