Value bet: Porto Vitória to win @ 2.25 – our chance 47% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPorto Vitória to win ✓47% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.92
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.42
Vilavelhense vs Porto Vitória preview and prediction
The match
Porto Vitória travel to face Vilavelhense in the Copa Espírito Santo on Sunday 17 May (19:00 WAT).
Form guide
Porto Vitória's last 5: WDLWL Most recently they beat Rio Branco ES 3–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Vilavelhense and 1.5 for Porto Vitória. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vilavelhense 32%, draw 21%, Porto Vitória 47%.
Value angle: Porto Vitória to win at 2.25 – 47% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 55% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Vilavelhense 1–1 Porto Vitória. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vilavelhense32%fair 3.16 · @2.75
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.25
Porto Vitória47%fair 2.11 · @2.25
2.64Expected goals
1.15Vilavelhense xG
1.49Porto Vitória xG
48%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Vilavelhense 1.2 – 1.5 Porto Vitória expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Porto Vitória to win✓
47%
2.11
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Porto Vitória / FT Porto Vitória✗
27%
3.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.42
–
Form
Vilavelhense – last 2
LD
15 Mar
@ Serra Talhada
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Desportiva ES
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Porto Vitória – last 6
WDLWLW
6 May
vs Rio Branco ES
3–0
W
29 Apr
vs Tocantinópolis
1–1
D
22 Apr
vs Vitória ES
1–3
L
16 Apr
@ Cuiaba
3–2
W
8 Apr
@ Anápolis
0–2
L
29 Mar
vs Atletico Goianiense
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vilavelhense and Porto Vitória.
What is the prediction for Vilavelhense vs Porto Vitória?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Vilavelhense vs Porto Vitória?
On our numbers Vilavelhense have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Porto Vitória 47%.
How many goals will there be in Vilavelhense vs Porto Vitória?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vilavelhense vs Porto Vitória?
Our predicted score is Vilavelhense 1–1 Porto Vitória, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Vilavelhense vs Porto Vitória?
Vilavelhense vs Porto Vitória (Copa Espírito Santo) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Espírito Santo · Brazil
