Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Hercílio Luz to win @ 1.95 – our chance 64% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultHercílio Luz to win ✓64% · @1.95
Double chanceHercílio Luz or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.69
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.80
Hercílio Luz vs Tubarao preview and prediction
The match
Tubarao travel to face Hercílio Luz in the Catarinense 2 on Wednesday 27 May (23:30 WAT).
Form guide
Hercílio Luz's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Juventus SC 1–0 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Tubarao's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Caravaggio 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Hercílio Luz and 0.6 for Tubarao. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 41%.
Value angle: Hercílio Luz to win at 1.95 – 64% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Hercílio Luz or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Hercílio Luz 1–0 Tubarao. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Hercílio Luz64%fair 1.56 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.20
Tubarao13%fair 7.41 · @3.50
2.27Expected goals
1.67Hercílio Luz xG
0.60Tubarao xG
41%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Hercílio Luz 1.7 – 0.6 Tubarao expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hercílio Luz to win✓
64%
1.56
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Hercílio Luz or draw✓
87%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hercílio Luz / FT Hercílio Luz✓
39%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.80
–
Form
Hercílio Luz – last 3
WLW
24 May
@ Juventus SC
1–0
W
13 May
vs Blumenau
0–1
L
28 Apr
vs Jaraguá
4–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Tubarao – last 6
DWDDWD
24 May
vs Caravaggio
2–2
D
17 May
@ Metropolitano
1–0
W
12 May
@ Nação
0–0
D
6 May
vs Jaraguá
1–1
D
1 May
vs Juventus SC
4–0
W
21 Apr
@ Blumenau
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hercílio Luz and Tubarao.
What is the prediction for Hercílio Luz vs Tubarao?
Our pick is Hercílio Luz or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Hercílio Luz vs Tubarao?
On our numbers Hercílio Luz have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tubarao 13%.
How many goals will there be in Hercílio Luz vs Tubarao?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hercílio Luz vs Tubarao?
Our predicted score is Hercílio Luz 1–0 Tubarao, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Hercílio Luz vs Tubarao?
Hercílio Luz vs Tubarao (Catarinense 2) kicks off on Wednesday 27 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Catarinense 2 · Brazil
Blumenau2
Guarani de Palhoça0