Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.29 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.29Odds
1
Value bet: Gharraf to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGharraf to win ✗57% · @1.91
Double chanceGharraf or draw ✗79% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.14
Gharraf vs Al Minaa Basra preview and prediction
The match
Gharraf host Al Minaa Basra in the Iraqi League on Tuesday 28 April, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT). Gharraf are 13th with 14 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Al Minaa Basra sit 9th on 17 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Gharraf's last 5: DWLDW Most recently they drew with Duhok 1–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Al Minaa Basra's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Baghdad 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Gharraf arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 February 2026, finished Al Minaa Basra 0–1 Gharraf.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.5 for Gharraf and 0.7 for Al Minaa Basra. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gharraf 57%, draw 22%, Al Minaa Basra 21%.
Safer route: Gharraf or draw (79%) at 1.29.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Gharraf to win at 1.91 – 57% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Gharraf or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.29, above our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gharraf 1–0 Al Minaa Basra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gharraf57%fair 1.76 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.60
Al Minaa Basra21%fair 4.86 · @3.20
2.20Expected goals
1.47Gharraf xG
0.73Al Minaa Basra xG
56%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–012%
1–112%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Gharraf 1.5 – 0.7 Al Minaa Basra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Gharraf vs Al Minaa Basra?
Our pick is Gharraf or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Gharraf vs Al Minaa Basra?
On our numbers Gharraf have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Al Minaa Basra 21%.
How many goals will there be in Gharraf vs Al Minaa Basra?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gharraf vs Al Minaa Basra?
Our predicted score is Gharraf 1–0 Al Minaa Basra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Gharraf vs Al Minaa Basra?
Gharraf vs Al Minaa Basra (Iraqi League) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
