Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Negelle Arsi to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNegelle Arsi to win ✗56% · @1.95
Double chanceNegelle Arsi or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.12
Negelle Arsi vs Suhul Shire preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Negelle Arsi take on Suhul Shire on Thursday 21 May, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Negelle Arsi's last 5: LWWDD Most recently they lost to Mekelakeya 0–4 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Suhul Shire's last 5: WLWDL Most recently they beat Ethiopia Bunna 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.3 for Negelle Arsi and 0.6 for Suhul Shire. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 71% likely.
Value angle: Negelle Arsi to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Negelle Arsi or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Negelle Arsi 1–0 Suhul Shire. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Negelle Arsi56%fair 1.78 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @2.75
Suhul Shire18%fair 5.57 · @4.00
1.89Expected goals
1.29Negelle Arsi xG
0.60Suhul Shire xG
49%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
0–015%
2–013%
1–112%
0–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Negelle Arsi 1.3 – 0.6 Suhul Shire expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Negelle Arsi to win✗
56%
1.78
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Negelle Arsi or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Negelle Arsi / FT Negelle Arsi✗
31%
3.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.12
–
Form
Negelle Arsi – last 6
LWWDDD
14 May
@ Mekelakeya
0–4
L
11 May
vs Dire Dawa Kenema
3–0
W
6 May
@ Welwalo Adigrat Uni
2–1
W
30 Apr
vs Fasil Ketema
0–0
D
19 Apr
vs Hadiya Hosaena
1–1
D
13 Apr
@ Sheger Ketema
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Suhul Shire – last 6
WLWDLD
14 May
vs Ethiopia Bunna
1–0
W
9 May
@ Adama Kenema
0–4
L
5 May
vs Mebrat Hayl
1–0
W
1 May
@ Bahardar
1–1
D
20 Apr
vs Welayta Dicha
0–1
L
15 Apr
@ Awassa Kenema
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Negelle Arsi and Suhul Shire.
What is the prediction for Negelle Arsi vs Suhul Shire?
Our pick is Negelle Arsi or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Negelle Arsi vs Suhul Shire?
On our numbers Negelle Arsi have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Suhul Shire 18%.
How many goals will there be in Negelle Arsi vs Suhul Shire?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Negelle Arsi vs Suhul Shire?
Our predicted score is Negelle Arsi 1–0 Suhul Shire, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Negelle Arsi vs Suhul Shire?
Negelle Arsi vs Suhul Shire (Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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