Value bet: Mebrat Hayl to win @ 3.60 – our chance 33% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMekelakeya to win ✓42% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓17% · fair 5.82
Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya preview and prediction
The match
Mekelakeya travel to face Mebrat Hayl in the Premier League on Wednesday 29 April (13:00 WAT). Mebrat Hayl are 8th with 7 points from 5 games (in the top half), while Mekelakeya sit 2nd on 10 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mebrat Hayl's last 5: DWLDW Most recently they drew with Ethiopian Medhin 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mekelakeya's last 5: DWWDD Most recently they drew with Awassa Kenema 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.8 for Mebrat Hayl and 0.9 for Mekelakeya. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 77% likely.
Value angle: Mebrat Hayl to win at 3.60 – 33% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Mekelakeya. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mebrat Hayl33%fair 3.04 · @3.60
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @2.60
Mekelakeya42%fair 2.40 · @2.15
1.67Expected goals
0.76Mebrat Hayl xG
0.91Mekelakeya xG
45%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–019%
0–117%
1–014%
1–113%
0–28%
1–26%
From our goals model: Mebrat Hayl 0.8 – 0.9 Mekelakeya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mekelakeya to win✓
42%
2.40
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
26%
3.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
17%
5.82
–
Form
Mebrat Hayl – last 6
DWLDWW
20 Apr
vs Ethiopian Medhin
1–1
D
14 Apr
@ Adama Kenema
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Kedus Giorgis
1–2
L
3 Apr
vs Bahardar
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Negelle Arsi
2–0
W
8 Mar
vs Ethiopia Bunna
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mekelakeya – last 6
DWWDDD
19 Apr
vs Awassa Kenema
0–0
D
15 Apr
@ Dire Dawa Kenema
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ Sidama Bunna
3–1
W
3 Apr
vs Suhul Shire
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Fasil Ketema
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mebrat Hayl and Mekelakeya.
What is the prediction for Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya?
On our numbers Mebrat Hayl have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mekelakeya 42%.
How many goals will there be in Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya?
Our predicted score is Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Mekelakeya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya?
Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya (Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Dire Dawa Kenema1