Value bet: Septemvri Sofia to win @ 1.77 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSeptemvri Sofia to win ✓63% · @1.77
Double chanceSeptemvri Sofia or draw ✓87% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.51
Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna preview and prediction
The match
The First League sees Septemvri Sofia take on Spartak Varna on Thursday 14 May, kicking off at 13:15 (WAT) at Stadion Dragalevtsi. Septemvri Sofia are 12th with 11 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while Spartak Varna sit 7th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Septemvri Sofia's last 5: DLDDD Most recently they drew with Botev Vratsa 1–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Spartak Varna's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat Slavia Sofia 2–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 16 April 2026, finished Septemvri Sofia 0–0 Spartak Varna.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Septemvri Sofia and 0.7 for Spartak Varna. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Septemvri Sofia 63%, draw 24%, Spartak Varna 13%.
Safer route: Septemvri Sofia or draw (87%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Septemvri Sofia to win at 1.77 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Septemvri Sofia 1–0 Spartak Varna. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Septemvri Sofia63%fair 1.59 · @1.77
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.45
Spartak Varna13%fair 7.47 · @4.10
2.60Expected goals
1.86Septemvri Sofia xG
0.74Spartak Varna xG
54%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Septemvri Sofia 1.9 – 0.7 Spartak Varna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
On our numbers Septemvri Sofia have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Spartak Varna 13%.
How many goals will there be in Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
Our predicted score is Septemvri Sofia 1–0 Spartak Varna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna (First League) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 13:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Dragalevtsi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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