Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlianza Universidad to win ✗72% · @1.33
Double chanceAlianza Universidad or draw ✗91% · @1.06
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗63% · fair 1.58
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.11
Alianza Universidad vs Santos preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División sees Alianza Universidad take on Santos on Monday 4 May, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT). Alianza Universidad are 5th with 21 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Santos sit 6th on 21 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.8 for Alianza Universidad and 0.4 for Santos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 37%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alianza Universidad 72%, draw 19%, Santos 9%.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alianza Universidad to win – a 72% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Alianza Universidad 1–0 Santos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alianza Universidad72%fair 1.39 · @1.33
Draw19%fair 5.17 · @4.50
Santos9%fair 11.65 · @7.00
2.22Expected goals
1.80Alianza Universidad xG
0.42Santos xG
37%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–018%
0–011%
3–011%
1–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: Alianza Universidad 1.8 – 0.4 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Universidad to win✗
72%
1.39
1.33
Double chance
Alianza Universidad or draw✗
91%
1.09
1.06
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.95 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
Half-time result
Alianza Universidad ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Universidad / FT Alianza Universidad✗
46%
2.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.11
–
Form
Alianza Universidad
No recent results on record.
Santos – last 1
D
29 Mar
@ Deportivo Binacional
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Universidad and Santos.
What is the prediction for Alianza Universidad vs Santos?
Our pick is Alianza Universidad to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Alianza Universidad vs Santos?
On our numbers Alianza Universidad have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Santos 9%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Universidad vs Santos?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Universidad vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Alianza Universidad 1–0 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Alianza Universidad vs Santos?
Alianza Universidad vs Santos (Segunda División) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
