The Segunda División sees Cerrito take on La Luz on Sunday 19 April, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT). Cerrito are 9th with 34 points from 25 games (in the bottom half), while La Luz sit 5th on 37 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Cerrito and 1.5 for La Luz. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerrito 34%, draw 26%, La Luz 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Cerrito 1–1 La Luz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerrito34%fair 2.93 · @3.10
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @2.80
La Luz40%fair 2.51 · @2.30
2.78Expected goals
1.33Cerrito xG
1.45La Luz xG
52%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Cerrito 1.3 – 1.5 La Luz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
La Luz to win✗
40%
2.51
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT La Luz / FT La Luz✗
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
11.10
–
Form
Cerrito – last 1
W
6 Apr
vs Uruguay Montevideo
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
La Luz – last 2
DD
28 Mar
vs Sportivo Huracan
2–2
D
17 Mar
@ Tacuarembo
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerrito and La Luz.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Cerrito vs La Luz?
On our numbers Cerrito have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and La Luz 40%.
How many goals will there be in Cerrito vs La Luz?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerrito vs La Luz?
Our predicted score is Cerrito 1–1 La Luz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Cerrito vs La Luz?
Cerrito vs La Luz (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
