Leones Negros travel to face Celaya in the Liga Premier Serie A on Saturday 18 April (18:00 WAT).
Form guide
Celaya's last 5: DLDWL Most recently they drew with Jaguares de Chiapas 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.6 for Celaya and 1.3 for Leones Negros. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 60%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Celaya 1–1 Leones Negros. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Celaya45%fair 2.21 · @2.15
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.50
Leones Negros34%fair 2.91 · @2.88
2.87Expected goals
1.56Celaya xG
1.31Leones Negros xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Celaya 1.6 – 1.3 Leones Negros expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Celaya to win
45%
2.21
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win
80%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
60%
1.68
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
54%
1.87
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
68%
1.46
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Celaya / FT Celaya
26%
3.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.08
–
Form
Celaya – last 5
DLDWL
12 Apr
vs Jaguares de Chiapas
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Montañeses
1–5
L
22 Mar
vs Inter Playa del Carmen
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Chapulineros
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Racing de Veracruz
0–4
L
0.6Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Leones Negros – last 2
WL
27 Mar
@ Tecos
2–0
W
17 Feb
@ Durango
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celaya and Leones Negros.
What is the prediction for Celaya vs Leones Negros?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Celaya vs Leones Negros?
On our numbers Celaya have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Leones Negros 34%.
How many goals will there be in Celaya vs Leones Negros?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celaya vs Leones Negros?
Our predicted score is Celaya 1–1 Leones Negros, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Celaya vs Leones Negros?
Celaya vs Leones Negros (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Deportiva Venados
Calor de San Pedro
Tecos0
Inter Playa del Carmen0