Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.35 – our chance 50% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente to win ✓42% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.31
Union Santa Fe vs Independiente preview and prediction
The match
Independiente travel to Estadio Marcelo Bielsa in the Copa Argentina on Saturday 23 May (00:00 WAT) to face Union Santa Fe.
Form guide
Union Santa Fe's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Belgrano Cordoba 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Independiente's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Defensa Y Justicia 3–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 10 March 2026, finished Independiente 4–4 Union Santa Fe.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.5 for Union Santa Fe and 1.7 for Independiente. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Union Santa Fe 34%, draw 24%, Independiente 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 2.35 – 50% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.45, above our fair price of 1.36, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Union Santa Fe 1–1 Independiente. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Union Santa Fe34%fair 2.94 · @2.75
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @2.92
Independiente42%fair 2.38 · @2.75
3.14Expected goals
1.48Union Santa Fe xG
1.67Independiente xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
2–27%
1–06%
From our goals model: Union Santa Fe 1.5 – 1.7 Independiente expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
On our numbers Union Santa Fe have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Independiente 42%.
How many goals will there be in Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
Our predicted score is Union Santa Fe 1–1 Independiente, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
Union Santa Fe vs Independiente (Copa Argentina) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
