Poland vs Nigeria prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.38 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Poland 1.5 – 1.1 Nigeria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Poland hold the edge on home soil with a 49% chance of winning, against 30% for Nigeria.
Poland have taken 3 points from their last 3 matches (1W 0D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 per game. Nigeria have 7 points from their last 3 (2W 1D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Nigeria come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.5 for Poland, 1.1 for Nigeria). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is close to our fair price of 1.38. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.80 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Poland to win ✗ | 49% | 2.03 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.38 | 1.33 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.94 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.28 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 42% | 2.37 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Poland / FT Poland ✗ | 28% | 3.55 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.26 | – |
Form
Poland – last 3
| 31 May | vs Ukraine | 0–2 | L |
| 31 Mar | @ Sweden | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Mar | vs Albania | 2–1 | W |
Nigeria – last 3
| 26 May | vs Zimbabwe | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | @ Jordan | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Mar | @ Iran | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Poland and Nigeria.
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What is the prediction for Poland vs Nigeria?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Poland vs Nigeria?
On our numbers Poland have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Nigeria 30%.
How many goals will there be in Poland vs Nigeria?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Poland vs Nigeria?
Poland vs Nigeria (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 3 June 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at PGE Narodowy.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.