The Segunda División sees Fenix take on Cerrito on Sunday 12 April, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Parque Capurro. Fenix are 11th with 31 points from 25 games (in the bottom half), while Cerrito sit 8th on 34 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Fenix and 1.2 for Cerrito. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fenix 43%, draw 24%, Cerrito 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 59% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.68, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Fenix 1–1 Cerrito. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fenix43%fair 2.30 · @2.38
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @2.90
Cerrito33%fair 3.04 · @2.88
2.67Expected goals
1.45Fenix xG
1.22Cerrito xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Fenix 1.4 – 1.2 Cerrito expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fenix to win
43%
2.30
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.68
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fenix / FT Fenix
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
10%
9.96
–
Form
Fenix – last 2
WD
5 Apr
vs Tacuarembo
3–2
W
15 Mar
@ Uruguay Montevideo
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cerrito – last 1
W
6 Apr
vs Uruguay Montevideo
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fenix and Cerrito.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Fenix vs Cerrito?
On our numbers Fenix have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cerrito 33%.
How many goals will there be in Fenix vs Cerrito?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fenix vs Cerrito?
Our predicted score is Fenix 1–1 Cerrito, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Fenix vs Cerrito?
Fenix vs Cerrito (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Capurro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
